Based on 375 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
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Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AAON positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
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At the ownership peak (96% of max)
96% of all-time peak
375 hedge funds hold AAON right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
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Outflows — 4% fewer funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
17 fewer hedge funds hold AAON compared to a year ago (-4% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
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More sellers than buyers — 47% buying
187 buying215 selling
Last quarter: 215 funds reduced or exited vs 187 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️
Fewer new buyers each quarter (-13 vs last Q)
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 65 → 63 → 79 → 66. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
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52% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 52% conviction (2yr+)
■ 24% medium
■ 24% new
194 out of 375 hedge funds have held AAON for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
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Buying through price weakness — shares +1%, value -17%
Last quarter: funds added +1% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -17%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
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Growing discovery — still being found
72 → 65 → 63 → 79 → 66 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 65 → 63 → 79 → 66. A growing number of institutions are discovering AAON each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
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Deep conviction — 54% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 54% veterans
■ 16% 1-2yr
■ 30% new
Of 381 current holders: 206 (54%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
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Elite ownership — 44% AUM from top-100 funds
44% from top-100 AUM funds
43 of 375 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 44% of total institutional value in AAON. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
Exit risk score 3.6/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.