Based on 145 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AMBC positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊
High ownership — 80% of 3.0Y peak
80% of all-time peak
145 funds currently hold this stock — 80% of the 3.0-year high of 182 funds (reached 2024 Q2). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
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Outflows — 17% fewer funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
29 fewer hedge funds hold AMBC compared to a year ago (-17% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠
More sellers than buyers — 43% buying
71 buying94 selling
Last quarter: 94 funds reduced or exited vs 71 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~35 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 31 → 22 → 31 → 35. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒
63% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 63% conviction (2yr+)
■ 15% medium
■ 22% new
91 out of 145 hedge funds have held AMBC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎
Buying through price weakness — shares -17%, value -50%
Last quarter: funds added -17% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -50%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📈
Growing discovery — still being found
35 → 31 → 22 → 31 → 35 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 31 → 22 → 31 → 35. A growing number of institutions are discovering AMBC each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️
Veteran-anchored — 67% veterans vs 24% newcomers
■ 67% veterans
■ 9% 1-2yr
■ 24% new
Entry-cohort mix of 152 holders: 102 (67%) are 2+ year veterans, 14 entered 1–2 years ago, and 36 (24%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
✅
Strong quality — 24% AUM from major funds
24% from top-100 AUM funds
34 of 145 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 24% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
Exit risk score 2.9/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.