Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (AMBC)

159 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in AMBC. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

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Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +16
Streak
1Q ▲
Buyers last Q
40%

Smart Money Signals — AMBC

Based on 149 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added AMBC than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
📊

High ownership — 82% of 3.0Y peak

82% of all-time peak
149 funds currently hold this stock — 82% of the 3.0-year high of 181 funds (reached 2024 Q2). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 17% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
31 fewer hedge funds hold AMBC compared to a year ago (-17% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 40% buying

60 buying91 selling
Last quarter: 91 funds reduced or exited vs 60 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+9 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new AMBC position: 35 → 31 → 22 → 31. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

61% of holders stayed for 2+ years

61% conviction (2yr+) 24% medium 15% new
91 out of 149 hedge funds have held AMBC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -9%, value -48%

Value
-47%
Shares
-9%
Last quarter: funds added -9% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -48%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📊

Peak discovery — momentum slowing

24 → 35 → 31 → 22 → 31 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 35 → 31 → 22 → 31. AMBC is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🏛️

Deep conviction — 72% of holders stayed 2+ years

72% veterans 9% 1-2yr 19% new
Of 161 current holders: 116 (72%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
🏆

Elite ownership — 41% AUM from top-100 funds

41% from top-100 AUM funds
38 of 149 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 41% of total institutional value in AMBC. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.0
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.0/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — AMBC

In 2025 Q4, 60 hedge funds were net buyers of AMBC (31 opened a new position, 29 added to an existing one), while 91 reduced or exited (76 trimmed, 15 sold completely) — a 40% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. 41% of total institutional value in AMBC is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +16 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 149.

Hedge Fund Ownership: AMBC

How many hedge funds hold AMBC — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of AMBC vs. share price

Market Analysis: AMBC

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: AMBC

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

29 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
6.4
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.6
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: AMBC
2026 Q1 Stats Unlock in 5 days 159 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in AMBC. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2025 Q4) Prior (2025 Q3) Change
Funds Holding 159 147 8.16%
13F Shares 39M 43M -9.08%
Total Value $305M $586M -47.86%
New Positions 30 25 +5
Increased Positions 46 68 -22
Closed Positions 18 37 -19
Reduced Positions 94 65 +29
Total Calls 7 11 -36.36%
Total Puts 7 7 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.0 0.64 Neutral

Statistics: AMBC

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Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

159 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in AMBC. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 institutional holders of AMBC — 2025 Q4 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Western Standard LLC 5.50% 2,247,591 $10.5M
2 Bain Capital Credit, LP 1.70% 1,108,012 $5.2M
3 THIRD AVENUE MANAGEMENT LLC 1.01% 1,341,211 $6.2M
4 PRESCOTT GROUP CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C. 0.74% 1,592,587 $7.4M
5 Wolf Hill Capital Management, LP 0.66% 1,470,334 $6.8M
6 Arrowpoint Investment Partners (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. 0.58% 139,168 $647K
7 ESSEX INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO LLC 0.31% 418,203 $1.9M
8 IPG Investment Advisors LLC 0.26% 325,616 $1.5M
9 Cruiser Capital Advisors, LLC 0.20% 108,798 $506K
10 Harbor Advisors LLC 0.13% 196,382 $913K
11 Park Capital Management, LLC / WI 0.10% 21,262 $99K
12 GENDELL JEFFREY L 0.09% 1,413,212 $6.6M
13 Bracebridge Capital, LLC 0.07% 579,234 $2.7M
14 Nebula Research & Development LLC 0.06% 107,124 $761K
15 Legato Capital Management LLC 0.06% 130,760 $608K
16 Brooklyn Investment Group 0.05% 325,351 $1.5M
17 GWN SECURITIES INC. 0.03% 36,404 $169K
18 Empirical Asset Management, LLC 0.03% 23,440 $109K
19 ANCHYRA PARTNERS LLC 0.02% 16,328 $76K
20 Commonwealth Financial Services, LLC 0.02% 29,008 $135K
21 Gator Capital Management, LLC 0.02% 21,435 $100K
22 Able Wealth Management LLC 0.02% 15,246 $71K
23 Caption Management, LLC 0.02% 642,597 $3.0M
24 JACOBS LEVY EQUITY MANAGEMENT, INC 0.02% 884,272 $4.1M
25 BRIDGEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 0.02% 182,504 $849K
Investor Ownership
History
% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC (AMBC)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for AMBC?

Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added AMBC than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for AMBC?

More sellers than buyers — 40% buying: Last quarter: 91 funds reduced or exited vs 60 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for AMBC holders?

Elite ownership — 41% AUM from top-100 funds: 38 of 149 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 41% of total institutional value in AMBC. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held AMBC?

61% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 91 out of 149 hedge funds have held AMBC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.