Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Octave Specialty Group Inc (AMBC)

145 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in AMBC. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -2
Streak
2Q ▼
Buyers last Q
53%

Smart Money Signals — AMBC

Based on 145 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AMBC positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 80% of 3.0Y peak

80% of all-time peak
145 funds currently hold this stock — 80% of the 3.0-year high of 182 funds (reached 2024 Q2). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
〰️

Stable — ownership unchanged year-over-year

fund count last 6Q
The number of hedge funds holding AMBC is almost the same as a year ago (-2 funds, -1% change). No significant rush to buy or sell — institutional backing is holding steady.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 53% buying

92 buying81 selling
Last quarter: 92 funds bought or added vs 81 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+6 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new AMBC position: 22 → 31 → 35 → 41. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

59% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 59% conviction (2yr+) ■ 12% medium ■ 29% new
85 out of 145 hedge funds have held AMBC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💰

Price up while funds trimmed (+27% value, -4% shares)

Value
+27%
Shares
-4%
Last quarter: total value of institutional AMBC holdings rose +27% even though funds reduced share count by 4%. The stock price increased enough to offset the selling. Institutions are quietly trimming into price strength — watch for rotation.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

31 → 22 → 31 → 35 → 41 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 22 → 31 → 35 → 41. A growing number of institutions are discovering AMBC each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 63% veterans vs 29% newcomers

■ 63% veterans ■ 8% 1-2yr ■ 29% new
Entry-cohort mix of 153 holders: 96 (63%) are 2+ year veterans, 13 entered 1–2 years ago, and 44 (29%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
✅

Strong quality — 38% AUM from major funds

38% from top-100 AUM funds
35 of 145 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 38% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
2.8
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 2.8/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — AMBC

In 2026 Q2, 92 hedge funds were net buyers of AMBC (41 opened a new position, 51 added to an existing one), while 81 reduced or exited (38 trimmed, 43 sold completely) — a 53% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. Net selling has persisted for two consecutive quarters. 38% of total institutional value in AMBC is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting strong institutional quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -2 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 145.

Hedge Fund Ownership: AMBC

How many hedge funds hold AMBC — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of AMBC vs. share price

Market Analysis: AMBC

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: AMBC

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Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Loading signal freshness…
Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

11 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
4.7
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
1.2
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: AMBC
145 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in AMBC. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q2) Prior (2026 Q1) Change
Funds Holding 145 147 -1.36%
13F Shares 32M 33M -4.06%
Total Value $196M $154M 26.99%
New Positions 41 35 +6
Increased Positions 48 33 +15
Closed Positions 43 37 +6
Reduced Positions 36 55 -19
Total Calls 4 3 33.33%
Total Puts 4 4 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.0 1.33 Neutral

Statistics: AMBC

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

145 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in AMBC. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 AMBC holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q2 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Western Standard LLC 4.75% 2,247,591 $14.0M
2 RIHO Partners, LLC 1.95% 554,818 $3.5M
3 Bain Capital Credit, LP 1.88% 1,108,012 $6.9M
4 Third Avenue Management LLC 1.34% 1,341,879 $8.4M
5 Prescott Group Capital Management, L.L.C. 0.89% 1,647,793 $10.3M
6 AYAL Capital Advisors Ltd 0.47% 280,000 $1.7M
7 Essex Investment Management Co LLC 0.44% 539,289 $3.4M
8 IPG Investment Advisors LLC 0.27% 303,930 $1.9M
9 Wolf Hill Capital Management, LP 0.25% 480,187 $3.0M
10 Harbor Advisors LLC 0.15% 196,382 $1.2M
11 Legato Capital Management LLC 0.09% 181,037 $1.1M
12 Lone Peak Global Investors LLC 0.09% 107,676 $672K
13 Diametric Capital, LP 0.08% 118,364 $739K
14 Bracebridge Capital, LLC 0.07% 579,234 $3.6M
15 Gwn Securities INC. 0.06% 60,295 $376K
16 FJ Capital Management LLC 0.05% 57,937 $362K
17 Gaddis Premier Wealth Advisors LLC 0.04% 10,000 $62K
18 State of Wyoming 0.04% 55,733 $348K
19 Impact Capital Partners LLC 0.03% 19,516 $122K
20 Gator Capital Management, LLC 0.03% 20,935 $131K
21 Gendell Jeffrey L 0.03% 494,092 $3.1M
22 Zacks Investment Management 0.03% 590,370 $3.7M
23 Mraz, Amerine & Associates, Inc. 0.02% 21,450 $134K
24 Crown Wealth Group, LLC 0.02% 11,162 $70K
25 Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc 0.01% 649,530 $4.1M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Octave Specialty Group Inc (AMBC)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for AMBC?

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row: For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AMBC positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for AMBC?

Slight buying edge — 53% buying: Last quarter: 92 funds bought or added vs 81 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for AMBC holders?

Strong quality — 38% AUM from major funds: 35 of 145 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 38% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held AMBC?

59% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 85 out of 145 hedge funds have held AMBC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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