Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Armour Residential REIT Inc (ARR)

241 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in ARR. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +21
Streak
9Q ▲
Buyers last Q
72%

Smart Money Signals — ARR

Based on 244 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 9 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 9 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added ARR than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
244 hedge funds hold ARR right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +26% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+50 new funds entered over the past year (+26% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟢

More buyers than sellers — 72% buying

170 buying65 selling
Last quarter: 170 funds were net buyers (45 opened a brand new position + 125 added to an existing one). Only 65 were sellers (41 trimmed + 24 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+8 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new ARR position: 48 → 46 → 37 → 45. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

55% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 55% conviction (2yr+) ■ 23% medium ■ 22% new
134 out of 244 hedge funds have held ARR for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💰

Value +36% but shares only +19% — price-driven

Value
+35%
Shares
+18%
Last quarter: the total dollar value of institutional holdings rose +36%, but actual share count only changed +19%. The gap is explained by the stock's price rising — not new buying. Strong value growth with weak share growth means the rally is price momentum, not fresh institutional demand.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~45 new funds/quarter

35 → 48 → 46 → 37 → 45 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 48 → 46 → 37 → 45. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 64% veterans vs 25% newcomers

■ 64% veterans ■ 10% 1-2yr ■ 25% new
Entry-cohort mix of 250 holders: 161 (64%) are 2+ year veterans, 26 entered 1–2 years ago, and 63 (25%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 57% AUM from top-100 funds

57% from top-100 AUM funds
42 of 243 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 57% of total institutional value in ARR. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.8
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.8/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — ARR

In 2026 Q2, 170 hedge funds were net buyers of ARR (45 opened a new position, 125 added to an existing one), while 65 reduced or exited (41 trimmed, 24 sold completely) — a 72% buyer ratio, indicating clear institutional accumulation. This marks 9 consecutive quarters of net institutional buying — a persistent conviction signal. 57% of total institutional value in ARR is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +21 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 244.

Hedge Fund Ownership: ARR

How many hedge funds hold ARR — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of ARR vs. share price

Market Analysis: ARR

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: ARR

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Armour Residential REIT Inc (ARR) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much ARR has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLRE) since the 2026 Q2 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End June 30, 2026 · 60d ago
ARR
-6.0%
XLRE
-5.7%

ARR outperformed XLRE by -0.3% since June 30, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date August 14, 2026 · 15d ago
ARR
-0.5%
XLRE
-3.9%

Since the filing became public, ARR outperformed XLRE by +3.4% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

13 top-rated funds 1 high-conviction
Consensus
5.0
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
1.1
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: ARR
241 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in ARR. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q2) Prior (2026 Q1) Change
Funds Holding 241 223 8.07%
13F Shares 76M 66M 15.06%
Total Value $1.32B $1.08B 22.37%
New Positions 45 37 +8
Increased Positions 121 72 +49
Closed Positions 26 34 -8
Reduced Positions 39 69 -30
Total Calls 4 6 -33.33%
Total Puts 3 4 -25.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.75 0.67 Neutral

Statistics: ARR

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
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Price/Book (mrq) --
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Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

241 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in ARR. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 ARR holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q2 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Penn Mutual Asset Management 15.59% 174,050 $3.0M
2 GraniteShares Advisors LLC 1.79% 159,100 $2.8M
3 Ascentis Wealth Management, LLC 1.03% 395,000 $6.9M
4 Columbus Macro, LLC 0.64% 374,790 $6.5M
5 Strait & Sound Wealth Management LLC 0.51% 83,029 $1.4M
6 Inceptionr LLC 0.27% 63,233 $1.1M
7 Virtus Advisers, LLC 0.22% 32,804 $572K
8 Jupiter Asset Management Ltd 0.19% 2,150,685 $37.5M
9 Advisors Asset Management, Inc. 0.16% 614,733 $10.7M
10 AlphaGrep UK Ltd 0.13% 22,052 $390K
11 Parisi Gray Wealth Management 0.09% 26,453 $462K
12 Susquehanna Fundamental Investments, LLC 0.09% 284,979 $5.0M
13 Bridgefront Capital, LLC 0.09% 18,930 $330K
14 Global Assets Advisory, LLC 0.07% 18,620 $324K
15 Simplicity Wealth,LLC 0.07% 114,785 $2.0M
16 Bramshill Investments, LLC 0.06% 43,393 $757K
17 Verition Fund Management LLC 0.06% 652,275 $11.4M
18 MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. 0.05% 2,501,415 $43.6M
19 Dynamic Technology Lab Private Ltd 0.05% 12,944 $226K
20 Susquehanna Portfolio Strategies, LLC 0.04% 159,464 $2.8M
21 Two Sigma Securities, LLC 0.04% 28,874 $504K
22 Wolverine Asset Management LLC 0.04% 269,831 $4.7M
23 Meeder Asset Management Inc 0.04% 40,097 $700K
24 SeaCrest Wealth Management, LLC 0.03% 18,112 $316K
25 Independent Financial Group, LLC 0.03% 91,539 $1.6M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Armour Residential REIT Inc (ARR)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for ARR?

Buying streak — 9 quarters in a row: For 9 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added ARR than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for ARR?

More buyers than sellers — 72% buying: Last quarter: 170 funds were net buyers (45 opened a brand new position + 125 added to an existing one). Only 65 were sellers (41 trimmed + 24 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.

What is the fund quality score for ARR holders?

Elite ownership — 57% AUM from top-100 funds: 42 of 243 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 57% of total institutional value in ARR. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held ARR?

55% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 134 out of 244 hedge funds have held ARR for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Armour Residential REIT Inc (ARR) following the 2026 Q2 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, ARR has moved -0.5% since the 2026 Q2 13F filing date (August 14, 2026), compared to -3.9% for the XLRE sector ETF — an outperformance of +3.4%. Since the quarter end (June 30, 2026), ARR has gained -6.0% vs -5.7% for XLRE. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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