Based on 26 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their CAPN positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊
High ownership — 87% of 3.0Y peak
87% of all-time peak
26 funds currently hold this stock — 87% of the 3.0-year high of 30 funds (reached 2025 Q3). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
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Outflows — 10% fewer funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
3 fewer hedge funds hold CAPN compared to a year ago (-10% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🔴
Heavy selling pressure — only 36% buying
5 buying9 selling
Last quarter: 9 funds sold vs only 5 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~1 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 7 → 6 → 5 → 1. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔄
Mostly new holders — 35% entered in last year
■ 8% conviction (2yr+)
■ 58% medium
■ 35% new
Only 2 funds (8%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.
💎
Buying through price weakness — shares -13%, value -99%
Last quarter: funds added -13% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -99%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
⚠️
Saturation — most institutions already know this story
28 → 7 → 6 → 5 → 1 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 7 → 6 → 5 → 1. Far fewer institutions are entering now vs. a year ago. When the pool of potential new buyers shrinks this fast, future price support from institutional inflows weakens significantly.
🌱
Early stage — 92% of holders entered in last year
■ 8% veterans
■ 0% 1-2yr
■ 92% new
Of 26 current holders: 24 (92%) entered in the past year, only 2 (8%) are 2+ year veterans. This is an early-phase institutional idea — still being discovered. High upside potential if the thesis plays out, but thin conviction base.
📋
Smaller funds dominant — 6% AUM from top-100
6% from top-100 AUM funds
4 of 26 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 6% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
Exit risk score 3.9/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.