Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

GEO GROUP INC (GEO)

289 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in GEO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -11
Streak
3Q ▼
Buyers last Q
49%

Smart Money Signals — GEO

Based on 263 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 3 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their GEO positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 92% of 3.0Y peak

92% of all-time peak
263 funds currently hold this stock — 92% of the 3.0-year high of 286 funds (reached 2025 Q1). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 4% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
11 fewer hedge funds hold GEO compared to a year ago (-4% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 49% buying

151 buying155 selling
Last quarter: 155 funds reduced or exited vs 151 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+6 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new GEO position: 61 → 37 → 44 → 50. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

60% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 60% conviction (2yr+) ■ 25% medium ■ 15% new
159 out of 263 hedge funds have held GEO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -8%, value -28%

Value
-27%
Shares
-8%
Last quarter: funds added -8% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -28%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~50 new funds/quarter

79 → 61 → 37 → 44 → 50 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 61 → 37 → 44 → 50. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Deep conviction — 67% of holders stayed 2+ years

■ 67% veterans ■ 11% 1-2yr ■ 21% new
Of 289 current holders: 194 (67%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
✅

Strong quality — 32% AUM from major funds

32% from top-100 AUM funds
34 of 263 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 32% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
3.0
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.0/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Hedge Fund Ownership: GEO

How many hedge funds hold GEO — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of GEO vs. share price

Market Analysis: GEO

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: GEO

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

40 top-rated funds 7 high-conviction
Consensus
7.0
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
4.1
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: GEO
2026 Q1 Stats Unlock in 11 days 289 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in GEO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2025 Q4) Prior (2025 Q3) Change
Funds Holding 289 309 -6.47%
13F Shares 138M 151M -8.31%
Total Value $2.23B $3.09B -27.86%
New Positions 51 45 +6
Increased Positions 132 133 -1
Closed Positions 69 49 +20
Reduced Positions 132 167 -35
Total Calls 14 26 -46.15%
Total Puts 13 16 -18.75%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.93 0.62 Neutral

Statistics: GEO

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
Return on Equity (ttm) --
Income Statement & Cash Flow
Revenue (ttm) --
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Total Cash (mrq) --
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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

289 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in GEO. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

Top 25 institutional holders of GEO — 2025 Q4 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Ballast Asset Management, LP 2.40% 320,748 $5.4M
2 Hodges Capital Management Inc. 1.57% 1,128,999 $19.0M
3 Appian Way Asset Management LP 0.88% 239,168 $4.9M
4 LEE DANNER & BASS INC 0.72% 685,500 $11.5M
5 First Dallas Securities Inc. 0.43% 68,620 $1.2M
6 CenterBook Partners LP 0.40% 441,548 $7.4M
7 Sterneck Capital Management, LLC 0.16% 21,656 $364K
8 River Road Asset Management, LLC 0.12% 622,614 $10.5M
9 TECTONIC ADVISORS LLC 0.09% 98,839 $1.7M
10 HARBOR CAPITAL ADVISORS, INC. 0.07% 52,989 —
11 Verdence Capital Advisors LLC 0.05% 55,287 $929K
12 Daytona Street Capital LLC 0.04% 3,300 $58K
13 DGS Capital Management, LLC 0.03% 12,236 $206K
14 Covestor Ltd 0.03% 2,855 —
15 Tidemark, LLC 0.03% 6,700 $113K
16 UBS Group AG 0.02% 9,387,296 $157.8M
17 WOLVERINE ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC 0.02% 130,246 $2.2M
18 State of Alaska, Department of Revenue 0.02% 111,956 $2K
19 Inscription Capital, LLC 0.02% 11,217 $189K
20 Louisiana State Employees Retirement System 0.02% 60,600 $1K
21 Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund 0.02% 74,297 $1.2M
22 SG Americas Securities, LLC 0.02% 850,332 $14K
23 AlphaQuest LLC 0.01% 15,511 $250K
24 WATERS PARKERSON & CO., LLC 0.01% 15,000 $252K
25 Abound Wealth Management 0.01% 2,045 $34K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — GEO GROUP INC (GEO)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for GEO?

Selling streak — 3 quarters in a row: For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their GEO positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for GEO?

More sellers than buyers — 49% buying: Last quarter: 155 funds reduced or exited vs 151 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for GEO holders?

Strong quality — 32% AUM from major funds: 34 of 263 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 32% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held GEO?

60% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 159 out of 263 hedge funds have held GEO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.