Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Mattel Inc (MAT)

393 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in MAT. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -26
Streak
2Q ▼
Buyers last Q
39%

Smart Money Signals — MAT

Based on 398 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their MAT positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 90% of 3.0Y peak

90% of all-time peak
398 funds currently hold this stock — 90% of the 3.0-year high of 440 funds (reached 2025 Q1). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 8% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
36 fewer hedge funds hold MAT compared to a year ago (-8% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🔴

Heavy selling pressure — only 39% buying

157 buying246 selling
Last quarter: 246 funds sold vs only 157 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-19 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 64 → 82 → 71 → 52. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

65% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 65% conviction (2yr+) ■ 19% medium ■ 16% new
260 out of 398 hedge funds have held MAT for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
📊

Peak discovery — momentum slowing

74 → 64 → 82 → 71 → 52 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 64 → 82 → 71 → 52. MAT is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 72% veterans vs 18% newcomers

■ 72% veterans ■ 10% 1-2yr ■ 18% new
Entry-cohort mix of 413 holders: 297 (72%) are 2+ year veterans, 40 entered 1–2 years ago, and 76 (18%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 50% AUM from top-100 funds

50% from top-100 AUM funds
58 of 396 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 50% of total institutional value in MAT. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.4
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.4/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — MAT

In 2026 Q2, 157 hedge funds were net buyers of MAT (52 opened a new position, 105 added to an existing one), while 246 reduced or exited (168 trimmed, 78 sold completely) — a 39% buyer ratio, indicating net institutional distribution. Net selling has persisted for two consecutive quarters. 50% of total institutional value in MAT is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -26 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 398.

Hedge Fund Ownership: MAT

How many hedge funds hold MAT — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of MAT vs. share price

Market Analysis: MAT

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: MAT

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Loading signal freshness…
Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

16 top-rated funds 2 high-conviction
Consensus
5.3
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
2.4
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: MAT
393 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in MAT. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q2) Prior (2026 Q1) Change
Funds Holding 393 424 -7.31%
13F Shares 307M 304M 0.92%
Total Value $4.10B $4.23B -3.07%
New Positions 50 71 -21
Increased Positions 101 139 -38
Closed Positions 79 83 -4
Reduced Positions 164 139 +25
Total Calls 9 8 12.5%
Total Puts 8 5 60.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.89 0.62 Neutral

Statistics: MAT

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
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Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

393 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in MAT. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 MAT holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q2 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Southeastern Asset Management Inc/Tn/ 8.92% 12,322,555 $171.0M
2 EdgePoint Investment Group Inc. 5.35% 51,047,454 $708.5M
3 Serenity Capital Management PTE. LTD. 4.19% 1,000,000 $13.9M
4 Seven Six Capital Management, LLC 2.96% 233,200 $3.2M
5 Magarian Capital Management, LLC 2.82% 657,210 $9.1M
6 Ariel Investments, LLC 2.13% 15,415,955 $214.0M
7 Barington Companies Management, LLC 1.95% 200,000 $2.8M
8 Fieldview Capital Management, LLC 1.34% 338,980 $4.7M
9 Kennondale Capital Management LLC 0.95% 103,235 $1.4M
10 Long Focus Capital Management, LLC 0.90% 2,540,000 $35.3M
11 Foyston, Gordon & Payne Inc 0.84% 283,312 $3.9M
12 Lotus Technology Management, LP 0.76% 44,894 $623K
13 III Capital Management 0.47% 132,109 $1.8M
14 Pine Valley Investments Ltd Liability Co 0.40% 725,249 $10.1M
15 AlphaCentric Advisors LLC 0.35% 30,000 $416K
16 44 Wealth Management LLC 0.32% 69,121 $959K
17 Hussman Strategic Advisors, INC. 0.27% 84,000 $1.2M
18 Primecap Management Co/Ca/ 0.24% 29,505,735 $409.5M
19 Alyeska Investment Group, L.P. 0.21% 6,008,450 $83.4M
20 Fuller & Thaler Asset Management, INC. 0.20% 5,276,858 $73.2M
21 Edmond de Rothschild Holding S.A. 0.19% 1,040,000 $14.4M
22 Frontier Capital Management Co LLC 0.17% 1,322,310 $18.4M
23 CastleKnight Management LP 0.15% 782,376 $10.9M
24 FORA Capital, LLC 0.14% 151,122 $2.1M
25 EntryPoint Capital, LLC 0.14% 12,601 $205K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Mattel Inc (MAT)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for MAT?

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row: For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their MAT positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for MAT?

Heavy selling pressure — only 39% buying: Last quarter: 246 funds sold vs only 157 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.

What is the fund quality score for MAT holders?

Elite ownership — 50% AUM from top-100 funds: 58 of 396 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 50% of total institutional value in MAT. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held MAT?

65% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 260 out of 398 hedge funds have held MAT for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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