Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST (NAIL)

27 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in NAIL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -6
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
47%

Smart Money Signals — NAIL

Based on 27 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NAIL positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 82% of 3.0Y peak

82% of all-time peak
27 funds currently hold this stock — 82% of the 3.0-year high of 33 funds (reached 2025 Q4). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 7% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
2 fewer hedge funds hold NAIL compared to a year ago (-7% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 47% buying

18 buying20 selling
Last quarter: 20 funds reduced or exited vs 18 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~7 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 1 → 12 → 12 → 7. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

41% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 41% conviction (2yr+) ■ 30% medium ■ 30% new
11 out of 27 hedge funds have held NAIL for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -29%, value -45%

Value
-45%
Shares
-28%
Last quarter: funds added -29% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -45%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~7 new funds/quarter

11 → 1 → 12 → 12 → 7 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 1 → 12 → 12 → 7. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Deep conviction — 47% of holders stayed 2+ years

■ 47% veterans ■ 12% 1-2yr ■ 41% new
Of 32 current holders: 15 (47%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
🏆

Elite ownership — 92% AUM from top-100 funds

92% from top-100 AUM funds
7 of 27 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 92% of total institutional value in NAIL. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.2
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.2/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — NAIL

In 2026 Q1, 18 hedge funds were net buyers of NAIL (7 opened a new position, 11 added to an existing one), while 20 reduced or exited (7 trimmed, 13 sold completely) — a 47% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. 92% of total institutional value in NAIL is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -6 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 27.

Hedge Fund Ownership: NAIL

How many hedge funds hold NAIL — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of NAIL vs. share price

Market Analysis: NAIL

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: NAIL

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST (NAIL) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much NAIL has moved relative to its sector benchmark (SPY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 51d ago
NAIL
-6.5%
SPY
+14.0%

NAIL outperformed SPY by -20.5% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 6d ago
NAIL
+11.5%
SPY
+0.3%

Since the filing became public, NAIL outperformed SPY by +11.2% .

Interpretation: The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

0 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
0.0
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.3
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: NAIL
27 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in NAIL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 27 33 -18.18%
13F Shares 2M 3M -28.6%
Total Value $78M $142M -45.43%
New Positions 7 12 -5
Increased Positions 11 12 -1
Closed Positions 13 8 +5
Reduced Positions 4 5 -1
Total Calls 5 4 25.0%
Total Puts 3 3 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.6 0.75 Bullish

Statistics: NAIL

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
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Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

27 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in NAIL. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 institutional holders of NAIL — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Variant Private Wealth, LLC 1.13% 24,579 $933K
2 THURSTON, SPRINGER, MILLER, HERD & TITAK, INC. 0.05% 2,873 $109K
3 Covestor Ltd 0.03% 973 —
4 VestGen Advisors, LLC 0.00% 5,200 $187K
5 VestGen Advisors, LLC 0.00% 5,000 $180K
6 Strategic Investment Solutions, Inc. /IL 0.00% — $19K
7 CITADEL ADVISORS LLC 0.00% 359,900 $13.7M
8 Squarepoint Ops LLC 0.00% 44,338 $1.7M
9 SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP 0.00% 402,100 $15.3M
10 CITADEL ADVISORS LLC 0.00% 274,100 $10.4M
11 SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP 0.00% 389,900 $14.8M
12 JANE STREET GROUP, LLC 0.00% 308,400 $11.7M
13 NATIXIS 0.00% 10,994 $399K
14 HOLLENCREST CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 0.00% 800 $30K
15 IFP Advisors, Inc 0.00% 1,296 $49K
16 Westend Capital Management, LLC 0.00% 82 $3K
17 HRT FINANCIAL LP 0.00% 9,305 $353K
18 GROUP ONE TRADING LLC 0.00% 11,195 $425K
19 IMC-Chicago, LLC 0.00% 38,815 $1.5M
20 JANE STREET GROUP, LLC 0.00% 99,600 $3.8M
21 GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 0.00% 35,960 $1.4M
22 Orion Capital Management LLC 0.00% 5 —
23 UBS Group AG 0.00% 8,296 $315K
24 SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC 0.00% 1,320 $50K
25 SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP 0.00% 5,782 $219K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST (NAIL)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for NAIL?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NAIL positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for NAIL?

More sellers than buyers — 47% buying: Last quarter: 20 funds reduced or exited vs 18 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for NAIL holders?

Elite ownership — 92% AUM from top-100 funds: 7 of 27 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 92% of total institutional value in NAIL. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held NAIL?

41% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 11 out of 27 hedge funds have held NAIL for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST (NAIL) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, NAIL has moved +11.5% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +0.3% for the SPY sector ETF — an outperformance of +11.2%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), NAIL has gained -6.5% vs +14.0% for SPY. The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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