Based on 101 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NOCT positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️
At the ownership peak (97% of max)
97% of all-time peak
101 hedge funds hold NOCT right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀
Fast accumulation — +25% more funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
+20 new funds entered over the past year (+25% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🔴
Heavy selling pressure — only 39% buying
34 buying54 selling
Last quarter: 54 funds sold vs only 34 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
⚠️
Fewer new buyers each quarter (-19 vs last Q)
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 10 → 2 → 32 → 13. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒
45% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 45% conviction (2yr+)
■ 27% medium
■ 29% new
45 out of 101 hedge funds have held NOCT for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
📈
Growing discovery — still being found
9 → 10 → 2 → 32 → 13 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 10 → 2 → 32 → 13. A growing number of institutions are discovering NOCT each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️
Veteran-anchored — 49% veterans vs 32% newcomers
■ 49% veterans
■ 20% 1-2yr
■ 32% new
Entry-cohort mix of 101 holders: 49 (49%) are 2+ year veterans, 20 entered 1–2 years ago, and 32 (32%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
📋
Smaller funds dominant — 7% AUM from top-100
7% from top-100 AUM funds
6 of 101 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 7% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
4.7
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 4.7/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.