Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST (TMF)

46 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in TMF. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -4
Streak
4Q ▼
Buyers last Q
43%

Smart Money Signals — TMF

Based on 46 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 4 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their TMF positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🔻

Below peak — only 68% of 2.8Y high

68% of all-time peak
Only 46 funds hold TMF today versus a peak of 68 funds at 2025 Q1 — just 68% of the maximum. Low institutional ownership can mean the stock is out of favor, but it also means there's a large pool of potential buyers if sentiment turns.
📉

Outflows — 32% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
22 fewer hedge funds hold TMF compared to a year ago (-32% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 43% buying

24 buying32 selling
Last quarter: 32 funds reduced or exited vs 24 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~11 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 16 → 12 → 9 → 11. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
📌

Mixed — 35% long-term, 22% new

■ 35% conviction (2yr+) ■ 43% medium ■ 22% new
Of the 46 current holders: 16 (35%) held >2 years, 20 held 1–2 years, and 10 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.
📊

Peak discovery — momentum slowing

19 → 16 → 12 → 9 → 11 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 16 → 12 → 9 → 11. TMF is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🏛️

Deep conviction — 47% of holders stayed 2+ years

■ 47% veterans ■ 26% 1-2yr ■ 26% new
Of 53 current holders: 25 (47%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
🏆

Elite ownership — 90% AUM from top-100 funds

90% from top-100 AUM funds
12 of 46 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 90% of total institutional value in TMF. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
2.3
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 2.3/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — TMF

In 2026 Q1, 24 hedge funds were net buyers of TMF (11 opened a new position, 13 added to an existing one), while 32 reduced or exited (17 trimmed, 15 sold completely) — a 43% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. This extends a 4-quarter selling streak, suggesting sustained institutional caution. 90% of total institutional value in TMF is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -4 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 46.

Hedge Fund Ownership: TMF

How many hedge funds hold TMF — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of TMF vs. share price

Market Analysis: TMF

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: TMF

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST (TMF) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much TMF has moved relative to its sector benchmark (SPY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 54d ago
TMF
-3.5%
SPY
+14.7%

TMF outperformed SPY by -18.2% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 9d ago
TMF
+3.1%
SPY
+0.9%

Since the filing became public, TMF outperformed SPY by +2.2% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

6 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
3.7
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
1.1
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: TMF
46 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in TMF. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 46 50 -8.0%
13F Shares 18M 16M 13.41%
Total Value $631M $579M 8.88%
New Positions 11 9 +2
Increased Positions 12 14 -2
Closed Positions 15 17 -2
Reduced Positions 16 17 -1
Total Calls 3 5 -40.0%
Total Puts 4 3 33.33%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.33 0.6 Bearish

Statistics: TMF

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Beta (5Y Monthly) --
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Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

46 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in TMF. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 institutional holders of TMF — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 RAFFLES ASSOCIATES LP 1.56% 50,000 $1.8M
2 PPSC Investment Service Corp 0.83% 292,079 $10.5M
3 PMV Capital Advisers, LLC 0.62% 10,153 $366K
4 SBI Securities Co., Ltd. 0.50% 510,223 $18.4M
5 PayPay Securities Corp 0.32% 259 $9K
6 PING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. 0.29% 28,000 $1.0M
7 Capital Investment Counsel, Inc 0.24% 53,200 $1.9M
8 BLUEFIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 0.13% 13,700 $511K
9 Encompass More Asset Management 0.09% 15,240 $550K
10 HOLLENCREST CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 0.09% 66,968 $2.4M
11 LifeGuide Financial Advisors, LLC 0.07% 6,315 $228K
12 HRT FINANCIAL LP 0.04% 424,509 $15.3M
13 CITADEL ADVISORS LLC 0.02% 3,310,100 $119.4M
14 XTX Topco Ltd 0.02% 28,374 $1.0M
15 CITADEL ADVISORS LLC 0.02% 2,687,800 $96.9M
16 Steele Capital Management, Inc. 0.02% 10,327 $372K
17 IMG Wealth Management, Inc. 0.01% 613 $22K
18 Simplicity Wealth,LLC 0.01% 6,029 $217K
19 SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP 0.01% 3,006,500 $108.4M
20 SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP 0.01% 2,885,600 $104.1M
21 EXENCIAL WEALTH ADVISORS, LLC 0.01% 8,000 $288K
22 GROUP ONE TRADING LLC 0.01% 104,392 $3.8M
23 Walleye Trading LLC 0.01% 118,800 $4.3M
24 BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ 0.01% 480,050 $17.3M
25 BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ 0.01% 480,000 $17.3M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST (TMF)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for TMF?

Selling streak — 4 quarters in a row: For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their TMF positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for TMF?

More sellers than buyers — 43% buying: Last quarter: 32 funds reduced or exited vs 24 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for TMF holders?

Elite ownership — 90% AUM from top-100 funds: 12 of 46 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 90% of total institutional value in TMF. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held TMF?

Mixed — 35% long-term, 22% new: Of the 46 current holders: 16 (35%) held >2 years, 20 held 1–2 years, and 10 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.

Is it too late to buy DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST (TMF) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, TMF has moved +3.1% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +0.9% for the SPY sector ETF — an outperformance of +2.2%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), TMF has gained -3.5% vs +14.7% for SPY. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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