Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

769 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in TOL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +49
Streak
4Q ▲
Buyers last Q
57%

Smart Money Signals — TOL

Based on 777 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 4 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added TOL than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
777 hedge funds hold TOL right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📶

Steady growth — +20% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+128 new funds entered over the past year (+20% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 57% buying

421 buying320 selling
Last quarter: 421 funds bought or added vs 320 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+17 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new TOL position: 118 → 132 → 110 → 127. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

57% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 57% conviction (2yr+) ■ 24% medium ■ 19% new
443 out of 777 hedge funds have held TOL for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~127 new funds/quarter

96 → 118 → 132 → 110 → 127 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 118 → 132 → 110 → 127. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 62% veterans vs 22% newcomers

■ 62% veterans ■ 15% 1-2yr ■ 22% new
Entry-cohort mix of 806 holders: 503 (62%) are 2+ year veterans, 122 entered 1–2 years ago, and 181 (22%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 57% AUM from top-100 funds

57% from top-100 AUM funds
60 of 775 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 57% of total institutional value in TOL. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.7
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.7/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — TOL

In 2026 Q1, 421 hedge funds were net buyers of TOL (127 opened a new position, 294 added to an existing one), while 320 reduced or exited (242 trimmed, 78 sold completely) — a 57% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. This marks 4 consecutive quarters of net institutional buying — a persistent conviction signal. 57% of total institutional value in TOL is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +49 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 777.

Hedge Fund Ownership: TOL

How many hedge funds hold TOL — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of TOL vs. share price

Market Analysis: TOL

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: TOL

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Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Loading signal freshness…
Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

49 top-rated funds 2 high-conviction
Consensus
7.4
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
2.6
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: TOL
2026 Q2 Stats Unlock in 4 days 769 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in TOL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 769 727 5.78%
13F Shares 85M 88M -3.66%
Total Value $11.19B $11.40B -1.81%
New Positions 124 110 +14
Increased Positions 287 229 +58
Closed Positions 82 95 -13
Reduced Positions 232 268 -36
Total Calls 13 20 -35.0%
Total Puts 17 18 -5.56%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.31 0.9 Bearish

Statistics: TOL

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

769 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in TOL. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
2026 Q2 filings are still coming in. Only funds that have filed so far are shown — top holders may not have reported yet. Full 13F data typically settles by ~50 days after quarter-end.
Top 25 TOL holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Greenhaven Associates Inc 10.71% 5,630,109 $927.6M
2 Riverstone Advisors, LLC 6.21% 90,966 $15.0M
3 Kettle Hill Capital Management, LLC 3.68% 90,764 $15.0M
4 NFC Investments, LLC 3.34% 79,764 $13.1M
5 Wedgewood Partners Inc 3.08% 90,562 $14.9M
6 Basswood Capital Management, L.L.C. 1.86% 284,288 $46.8M
7 Trail Ridge Investment Advisors, LLC 1.81% 25,963 $4.3M
8 De Lisle Partners LLP 1.71% 95,000 $15.7M
9 Opinicus Capital, INC. 1.54% 17,462 $2.9M
10 Anchor Capital Advisors LLC 1.46% 315,103 $51.9M
11 Hager Investment Management Services, LLC 1.45% 19,163 $3.2M
12 Sone Capital Management, LLC 1.44% 114,762 $18.9M
13 Byrne Asset Management LLC 1.34% 15,046 $2.5M
14 Outfitters Financial LLC 1.28% 11,040 $1.8M
15 MRP Capital Investments, LLC 1.26% 10,339 $1.7M
16 Tower Bridge Advisors 1.11% 74,881 $12.3M
17 Summit Place Financial Advisors, LLC 1.09% 15,115 $2.5M
18 Lyell Wealth Management, LP 1.07% 105,787 $17.4M
19 Shariaportfolio, INC. 1.06% 18,156 $3.0M
20 Ceredex Value Advisors LLC 1.04% 224,656 $37.0M
21 OMC Financial Services LTD 1.03% 18,878 $3.1M
22 Shellback Capital, LP 1.01% 70,000 $11.5M
23 Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP 0.97% 63,367 $10.4M
24 Distillate Capital Partners LLC 0.93% 108,129 $17.8M
25 Milford Funds Ltd 0.90% 335,735 $55.3M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for TOL?

Buying streak — 4 quarters in a row: For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added TOL than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for TOL?

Slight buying edge — 57% buying: Last quarter: 421 funds bought or added vs 320 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for TOL holders?

Elite ownership — 57% AUM from top-100 funds: 60 of 775 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 57% of total institutional value in TOL. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held TOL?

57% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 443 out of 777 hedge funds have held TOL for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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