Based on 150 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their TY positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️
At the ownership peak (97% of max)
97% of all-time peak
150 hedge funds hold TY right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
〰️
Stable — ownership unchanged year-over-year
fund count last 6Q
The number of hedge funds holding TY is almost the same as a year ago (+5 funds, +3% change). No significant rush to buy or sell — institutional backing is holding steady.
🟡
Slight buying edge — 55% buying
79 buying64 selling
Last quarter: 79 funds bought or added vs 64 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
📈
More new buyers each quarter (+8 vs last Q)
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new TY position: 9 → 15 → 17 → 25. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒
64% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 64% conviction (2yr+)
■ 19% medium
■ 17% new
96 out of 150 hedge funds have held TY for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
🚀
Acceleration phase — new buyers rushing in
24 → 9 → 15 → 17 → 25 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 9 → 15 → 17 → 25. The pace of institutional discovery is accelerating sharply. This is the 'hot idea' phase — the thesis is being passed from fund to fund. You are not late — the accumulation wave is still building.
🏛️
Deep conviction — 67% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 67% veterans
■ 10% 1-2yr
■ 23% new
Of 150 current holders: 100 (67%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
✅
Strong quality — 21% AUM from major funds
21% from top-100 AUM funds
20 of 150 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 21% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
Exit risk score 3.4/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.