Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP)

153 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in UGP. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

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Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +13
Streak
2Q ▲
Buyers last Q
66%

Smart Money Signals — UGP

Based on 154 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 2 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added UGP than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
154 hedge funds hold UGP right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +33% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+38 new funds entered over the past year (+33% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟢

More buyers than sellers — 66% buying

102 buying52 selling
Last quarter: 102 funds were net buyers (34 opened a brand new position + 68 added to an existing one). Only 52 were sellers (31 trimmed + 21 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~34 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 22 → 21 → 37 → 34. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

57% of holders stayed for 2+ years

57% conviction (2yr+) 18% medium 25% new
88 out of 154 hedge funds have held UGP for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💰

Price up while funds trimmed (+43% value, -0% shares)

Value
+43%
Shares
+0%
Last quarter: total value of institutional UGP holdings rose +43% even though funds reduced share count by 0%. The stock price increased enough to offset the selling. Institutions are quietly trimming into price strength — watch for rotation.
🚀

Acceleration phase — new buyers rushing in

21 → 22 → 21 → 37 → 34 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 22 → 21 → 37 → 34. The pace of institutional discovery is accelerating sharply. This is the 'hot idea' phase — the thesis is being passed from fund to fund. You are not late — the accumulation wave is still building.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 66% veterans vs 28% newcomers

66% veterans 6% 1-2yr 28% new
Entry-cohort mix of 154 holders: 101 (66%) are 2+ year veterans, 10 entered 1–2 years ago, and 43 (28%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 48% AUM from top-100 funds

48% from top-100 AUM funds
35 of 154 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 48% of total institutional value in UGP. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
4.1
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 4.1/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — UGP

In 2026 Q1, 102 hedge funds were net buyers of UGP (34 opened a new position, 68 added to an existing one), while 52 reduced or exited (31 trimmed, 21 sold completely) — a 66% buyer ratio, indicating clear institutional accumulation. Net buying has persisted for two consecutive quarters, a positive momentum signal. 48% of total institutional value in UGP is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +13 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 154.

Hedge Fund Ownership: UGP

How many hedge funds hold UGP — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of UGP vs. share price

Market Analysis: UGP

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: UGP

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much UGP has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLE) since the 2026 Q2 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End June 30, 2026 · 11d ago
UGP
+19.5%
XLE
+3.7%

UGP outperformed XLE by +15.8% since June 30, 2026.

Interpretation: The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

12 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
4.8
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.8
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: UGP
2026 Q2 Stats Unlock in 39 days 153 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in UGP. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 153 141 8.51%
13F Shares 62M 62M -0.0%
Total Value $333M $232M 43.14%
New Positions 33 37 -4
Increased Positions 68 56 +12
Closed Positions 21 17 +4
Reduced Positions 31 36 -5
Total Calls 0 0 -
Total Puts 0 1 -100.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.0 0.0 Bullish

Statistics: UGP

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Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

153 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in UGP. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 4 UGP holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, Inc. 0.01% 63,803 $320K
2 GAMMA Investing LLC 0.00% 16,718 $84K
3 Ares Financial Consulting, LLC 0.00% 224 $1K
4 Jfs Wealth Advisors, LLC 0.00% 253 $1K
Investor Ownership
History
% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for UGP?

Buying streak — 2 quarters in a row: For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added UGP than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for UGP?

More buyers than sellers — 66% buying: Last quarter: 102 funds were net buyers (34 opened a brand new position + 68 added to an existing one). Only 52 were sellers (31 trimmed + 21 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.

What is the fund quality score for UGP holders?

Elite ownership — 48% AUM from top-100 funds: 35 of 154 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 48% of total institutional value in UGP. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held UGP?

57% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 88 out of 154 hedge funds have held UGP for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) following the 2026 Q2 hedge fund 13F filings?

Since the quarter end (June 30, 2026), UGP has gained +19.5% vs +3.7% for XLE. The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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