Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

ULTRAPAR PARTICIPACOES SA (UGP)

140 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in UGP. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +20
Streak
1Q ▲
Buyers last Q
64%

Smart Money Signals — UGP

Based on 141 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added UGP than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
141 hedge funds hold UGP right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +26% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+29 new funds entered over the past year (+26% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟢

More buyers than sellers — 64% buying

94 buying53 selling
Last quarter: 94 funds were net buyers (37 opened a brand new position + 57 added to an existing one). Only 53 were sellers (36 trimmed + 17 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+16 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new UGP position: 21 → 22 → 21 → 37. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

65% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 65% conviction (2yr+) ■ 13% medium ■ 22% new
92 out of 141 hedge funds have held UGP for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

15 → 21 → 22 → 21 → 37 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 21 → 22 → 21 → 37. A growing number of institutions are discovering UGP each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Deep conviction — 68% of holders stayed 2+ years

■ 68% veterans ■ 8% 1-2yr ■ 23% new
Of 142 current holders: 97 (68%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
🏆

Elite ownership — 49% AUM from top-100 funds

49% from top-100 AUM funds
35 of 141 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 49% of total institutional value in UGP. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.8
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.8/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — UGP

In 2025 Q4, 94 hedge funds were net buyers of UGP (37 opened a new position, 57 added to an existing one), while 53 reduced or exited (36 trimmed, 17 sold completely) — a 64% buyer ratio, indicating clear institutional accumulation. 49% of total institutional value in UGP is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +20 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 141.

Hedge Fund Ownership: UGP

How many hedge funds hold UGP — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of UGP vs. share price

Market Analysis: UGP

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: UGP

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Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

23 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
6.0
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.6
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: UGP
2026 Q1 Stats Unlock in 2 days 140 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in UGP. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2025 Q4) Prior (2025 Q3) Change
Funds Holding 140 118 18.64%
13F Shares 62M 54M 14.96%
Total Value $232M $220M 5.73%
New Positions 37 20 +17
Increased Positions 57 40 +17
Closed Positions 15 22 -7
Reduced Positions 36 44 -8
Total Calls 0 0 -
Total Puts 1 1 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.0 0.0 Bullish

Statistics: UGP

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Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

140 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in UGP. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 institutional holders of UGP — 2025 Q4 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Naman Capital Ltda 17.70% 12,727,222 $63.7M
2 Kapitalo Investimentos Ltda 0.95% 915,468 $5.0M
3 Parvin Asset Management, LLC 0.74% 185,750 $1.0M
4 LONGFELLOW INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CO LLC 0.61% 534,513 $2.9M
5 SPX Gestao de Recursos Ltda 0.24% 519,126 $2.9M
6 VPR Management LLC 0.10% 46,700 $257K
7 West Family Investments, Inc. 0.06% 33,240 $183K
8 Banque Cantonale Vaudoise 0.06% 300,000 $1.7M
9 FOX RUN MANAGEMENT, L.L.C. 0.04% 47,386 $253K
10 AXQ CAPITAL, LP 0.04% 60,893 $336K
11 Plan A Wealth LLC 0.04% 15,552 $86K
12 TWO SIGMA SECURITIES, LLC 0.03% 51,114 $282K
13 RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC 0.03% 3,740,700 $20.6M
14 R Squared Ltd 0.03% 10,064 $55K
15 Compound Planning, Inc. 0.03% 158,855 $875K
16 RITHOLTZ WEALTH MANAGEMENT 0.02% 201,286 $1.1M
17 Bleakley Financial Group, LLC 0.02% 213,465 $1.2M
18 Sivia Capital Partners, LLC 0.02% 16,474 $91K
19 Inspire Advisors, LLC 0.02% 33,916 $187K
20 Qube Research & Technologies Ltd 0.02% 2,451,522 $13.5M
21 Vident Advisory, LLC 0.01% 305,398 $1.7M
22 AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC 0.01% 3,715,079 $20.5M
23 Laird Norton Wetherby Trust Company, LLC 0.01% 87,112 $480K
24 REGATTA CAPITAL GROUP, LLC 0.01% 12,415 $68K
25 PDS Planning, Inc 0.01% 28,286 $156K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — ULTRAPAR PARTICIPACOES SA (UGP)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for UGP?

Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added UGP than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for UGP?

More buyers than sellers — 64% buying: Last quarter: 94 funds were net buyers (37 opened a brand new position + 57 added to an existing one). Only 53 were sellers (36 trimmed + 17 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.

What is the fund quality score for UGP holders?

Elite ownership — 49% AUM from top-100 funds: 35 of 141 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 49% of total institutional value in UGP. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held UGP?

65% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 92 out of 141 hedge funds have held UGP for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.