Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Vale S A (VALE)

535 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in VALE. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

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Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -20
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
47%

Smart Money Signals — VALE

Based on 543 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their VALE positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (96% of max)

96% of all-time peak
543 hedge funds hold VALE right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📶

Steady growth — +13% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+63 new funds entered over the past year (+13% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 47% buying

266 buying296 selling
Last quarter: 296 funds reduced or exited vs 266 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-43 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 82 → 106 → 113 → 70. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

62% of holders stayed for 2+ years

62% conviction (2yr+) 17% medium 22% new
334 out of 543 hedge funds have held VALE for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~70 new funds/quarter

65 → 82 → 106 → 113 → 70 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 82 → 106 → 113 → 70. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 67% veterans vs 23% newcomers

67% veterans 10% 1-2yr 23% new
Entry-cohort mix of 595 holders: 401 (67%) are 2+ year veterans, 60 entered 1–2 years ago, and 134 (23%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 69% AUM from top-100 funds

69% from top-100 AUM funds
59 of 538 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 69% of total institutional value in VALE. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.7
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.7/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — VALE

In 2026 Q2, 266 hedge funds were net buyers of VALE (70 opened a new position, 196 added to an existing one), while 296 reduced or exited (206 trimmed, 90 sold completely) — a 47% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. 69% of total institutional value in VALE is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -20 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 543.

Hedge Fund Ownership: VALE

How many hedge funds hold VALE — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of VALE vs. share price

Market Analysis: VALE

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: VALE

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Vale S A (VALE) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much VALE has moved relative to its sector benchmark (SPY) since the 2026 Q2 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End June 30, 2026 · 73d ago
VALE
+2.2%
SPY
+2.1%

VALE outperformed SPY by +0.1% since June 30, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date August 14, 2026 · 28d ago
VALE
+12.7%
SPY
-1.8%

Since the filing became public, VALE outperformed SPY by +14.5% .

Interpretation: The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

21 top-rated funds 4 high-conviction
Consensus
5.8
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
3.2
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: VALE
535 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in VALE. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q2) Prior (2026 Q1) Change
Funds Holding 535 563 -4.97%
13F Shares 926M 960M -3.61%
Total Value $13.77B $15.00B -8.19%
New Positions 69 113 -44
Increased Positions 178 208 -30
Closed Positions 92 79 +13
Reduced Positions 199 164 +35
Total Calls 29 30 -3.33%
Total Puts 28 29 -3.45%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.97 0.97 Neutral

Statistics: VALE

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Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

535 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in VALE. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 VALE holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q2 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Rwc Asset Advisors (us) LLC 10.43% 3,116,288 $46.9M
2 Vinland Capital Management Gestora de Recursos LTDA. 7.75% 52,300 $787K
3 Turim 21 Investimentos Ltda. 6.24% 2,545,258 $38.3M
4 Moneda S.A. Administradora General de Fondos 5.50% 446,015 $6.7M
5 Lifetime Wealth Management P.C. 4.47% 509,278 $7.7M
6 Itau Unibanco Holding S.A. 4.38% 15,368,311 $230.5M
7 Kiltearn Partners LLP 3.32% 909,672 $13.7M
8 Deeter Investments LLP 3.18% 1,143,871 $14.9M
9 BSN Capital Partners Ltd 3.15% 4,555,833 $69.7M
10 TLS Advisors LLC 2.99% 67,528 $1.0M
11 Converium Capital Inc. 2.31% 1,200,000 $18.0M
12 Mondrian Investment Partners LTD 2.15% 9,252,093 $139.2M
13 Abbington Investment Group 2.07% 216,726 $3.3M
14 Dayah Capital LLC 2.03% 400,000 $6.0M
15 ClearAlpha Technologies LP 1.86% 72,300 $1.1M
16 Greater Midwest Financial Group, LLC 1.43% 190,862 $2.9M
17 Todd Asset Management LLC 1.43% 5,350,321 $80.5M
18 Larch Capital Partners LLC 1.33% 618,259 $9.3M
19 Capital CS Group, LLC 1.15% 96,900 $1.5M
20 Greenline Partners, LLC 1.04% 678,229 $10.2M
21 RWC Asset Management LLP 0.85% 1,500,372 $22.6M
22 Commons Capital, LLC 0.84% 80,000 $1.2M
23 Himension Capital (singapore) PTE. LTD. 0.79% 852,163 $12.8M
24 Covalis Capital LLP 0.77% 905,082 $13.6M
25 Artemis Investment Management LLP 0.76% 5,711,576 $85.9M
Investor Ownership
History
% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Vale S A (VALE)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for VALE?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their VALE positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for VALE?

More sellers than buyers — 47% buying: Last quarter: 296 funds reduced or exited vs 266 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for VALE holders?

Elite ownership — 69% AUM from top-100 funds: 59 of 538 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 69% of total institutional value in VALE. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held VALE?

62% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 334 out of 543 hedge funds have held VALE for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Vale S A (VALE) following the 2026 Q2 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, VALE has moved +12.7% since the 2026 Q2 13F filing date (August 14, 2026), compared to -1.8% for the SPY sector ETF — an outperformance of +14.5%. Since the quarter end (June 30, 2026), VALE has gained +2.2% vs +2.1% for SPY. The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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